The Deutsche Bank survey findings suggest that there is an increasing likelihood of the United States experiencing a recession in the next 12 months, with the probability currently standing at around 43%. This indicates growing concerns among consumers and business leaders about the potential for economic slowdown or contraction. Despite low unemployment rates and continued albeit slowing growth, these survey results underscore the sentiment that the risk of a recession is becoming more prominent in people’s minds.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged these concerns but maintained his belief that the economy remains strong overall with significant progress made over the past two years. However, he and other Fed officials have revised their GDP growth estimate for this year to a 1.7% annualized gain, which would be the worst since 2011 if excluding the Covid-induced dip in 2020. This has led some economists to raise concerns about the possibility of stagflation – a phenomenon not seen since the early 1980s when both inflation and slow growth coexisted.
The combination of higher inflation rates and slower economic growth presents policymakers with a challenging dilemma: whether to prioritize boosting growth or controlling prices. As markets continue to show signs of nervousness, bond expert Jeffrey Gundlach at DoubleLine Capital sees the chances of a recession as high as 50-60%. The recent equity market correction can be partly attributed to this uncertainty surrounding future economic prospects.
In summary, while there are still positive indicators in the economy such as low unemployment rates and continued growth albeit slowing down, the increasing probability of a recession according to surveys like Deutsche Bank’s highlights that it is crucial for both policymakers and businesses to remain vigilant and adaptive in these uncertain times.
[Original Article](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/probability-recession-approaching-50-percent-deutsche-markets-survey-rcna197857) #probability [Visit GhostAI](https://ghostai.pro/)
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